India is likely to become worst affected by 2021: MIT report, record 2,87 lakh cases of covid per day
Nagpur:- Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( MIT) cautioned in recent research that COVID-19 cases reported every day in India could rise to 2.87 lakh by early 2021 unless a vaccine or treatment is developed soon.
Researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of the MIT Sloan School of management predicting that India could report the highest number of new cases in the world by the end of the winter in 2021 in their study entitled ‘Estimating the global spread of COVID-19.’ However, over 24.9 crore cases and 18 lakh deaths are registered worldwide in spring next year (March-May) without a vaccine or treatment, according to the analysis.
The researchers were able to estimate the spread of new coronavirus in 84 countries, representing around 60 per cent of the world ‘s population, by using the information on outbreaks, deaths, testing and many other variables.
‘In order to simultaneously estimate COVID-19 transmission in 84 countries, we use the multi-country updated SEIR model (Susceptibles, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered). The model tracks community transmission, excluding the global travel network and instead calculates separately how much patient zero is introduced for each country, “read the study.
Even though the USA is currently the worst affected with the pandemic in the world with almost 3 million cases, the researchers predicted that India will soon conquer the pandemic. By the end of February 2021, South Africa (21 000 cases per day), Iran (17 000 cases per day), and Indonesia (13 000 cases daily), the study indicated, would report the second-highest number of new cases (95 000 cases daily).
The MIT students say that there is 12 times the actual number of cases and that deaths are 50 % higher than recorded. Both nations remain, however, much lower than the immunity standard for the herd, the study reports.
In addition, the study estimates the risk of infection death (IFR) over time for various countries. Within IFR, the probability of death following the infection is alluded to. Numerous variables contribute to IFR estimation, such as age, public health, education and regional protest policies. The researchers found an average IFR of 0.68%, but found that it varies widely across countries. The IFR in Iceland was 0.56%, while in New Zealand it was 0.64% and in the US it was 0.99%.
The report highlighted the significance of early and vigorous testing to monitor the spread and death rate of the virus. The importance of the test erodes with the increase of the pandemic and becomes increasingly difficult to monitor, track touch, and isolate people who come into contact with the infectious individual.
Hazhir Rahmandad said, “The driver of future pathways is their reach, hygiene and mask use. “Communities that rapidly develop risky connections when the cases increase will likely see far fewer cases in the longer term.”
In the clinical assessment process, 19 vaccine trials are developed and tested, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). A vaccine COVID-19 for commercial use is still not licensed.
